Week 20, 2026
Technical Analysis: Silver (XAG/USD)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets covering the latest news and price action with clear, actionable insights.
Bond markets were the week's most unsettling development. The 30-year US Treasury auction broke above 5.0% for the first time since the subprime crisis, driving the dollar steadily higher and pushing gold toward its worst weekly performance in months, falling from near $4,800 to $4,550. WTI surged nearly 9% after Trump said China would buy more US oil, a notable byproduct of the Beijing summit.
The week ahead brings UK inflation and labour data, and Nvidia's results, while sterling (GBP) navigates a political crisis that could yet unseat the British prime minister.
Chart of the Week
If bond yields are rising it must mean bond prices are falling. To state the obvious, prices fall when supply exceeds demand. One large source of supply for US Treasury bonds (which spiked last week) in Q1 was Japan.
Source: Bloomberg
Week in Review
Trump-Xi summit Markets took the Beijing meeting as a green light despite no major breakthroughs on trade. The cordial tone was enough to fuel a surge in AI-linked equities, with Cisco jumping 15% on earnings and the Nasdaq hitting a second consecutive record high.
Fed transition The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, taking over from Jerome Powell whose term ends Friday. The last Powell meeting was the most contentious in decades — traders will be watching closely for Warsh's first public signals on rates.
Inflation and yields Core CPI came in hotter than expected, pushing rate hike odds above 40% and fully pricing out cuts. The 30-year Treasury auction cleared above 5.0%, the first time since the subprime crisis — lifting the dollar throughout the week.
The Japanese yen remained volatile, with USD/JPY dropping sharply on Tuesday while US Treasury Secretary Bessent was in Tokyo (widely interpreted as another round of intervention). The 160 level continues to act as a line in the sand for Japanese authorities.
UK Q1 GDP beat expectations but was overshadowed by intensifying political pressure on PM Starmer following the Labour base revolt. Sterling was the worst-performing major currency of the week.
Markets The S&P 500 was the best-performing major index, led by chip suppliers amid rising memory costs and Samsung strike concerns. Gold was among the worst performers as geopolitical risk premiums unwound and yields rose.
Latest Price Action
Source: FinViz.com
Week Ahead
Nvidia earnings (Wednesday) The de facto report of the AI era. Nvidia shares are up 36% since March and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index has surged over 60% — expectations are sky-high. Markets will focus on data centre demand, AI capex guidance, and whether rivals are eroding Nvidia's market share. A miss or cautious guidance would ripple well beyond the stock. The result will also serve as the broadest signal yet on the health of the AI infrastructure buildout.
FOMC minutes — parsing the dissenters (Wednesday) The minutes cover Powell's final and most contentious meeting, with a record number of dissenters on the inflation outlook. Traders will count remaining doves ahead of Warsh's expected policy signals. Hike odds above 40% mean any hawkish lean in the minutes could accelerate repricing. Gold support sits at $5,000; a breakdown exposes $4,370.
UK CPI and political risk (Wednesday) Headline CPI is expected to ease to 3.0% from 3.3% on base effects, but monthly core is seen holding at 0.4% — still elevated. The data may matter less than politics: if the Starmer revolt reaches critical mass, sterling would likely take another leg lower. GBP/USD key levels are 1.3300 and 1.3200 to the downside, 1.3530 on a recovery above 1.3400.
Flash PMIs — price pressure in focus (Thursday) May flash readings will be watched for signs that oil-driven inflation is broadening into the wider economy. European PMIs are particularly sensitive — slow growth means an ECB hike could paradoxically weaken the euro rather than support it. EUR/USD support at 1.1600 is the level to watch.
Walmart and retailers (Thursday) Walmart headlines a week of retail earnings that will offer the most direct read yet on whether $4.50 gasoline is visibly biting consumer spending. With consumer expenditure accounting for over two-thirds of the US economy, any signs of softening in discretionary categories would carry macro significance.
Economic Calendar
*** Highest Impact
Source: FXStreet
Earnings
Nvidia / Walmart / Home Depot / Lowe's / Analog Devices / Deere / Marks & Spencer / Curry's / BT
Technical Analysis
Silver (XAG/USD)
Setup
Sideways trend, possible bullish breakout
- Closed slightly lower last week, outperformed gold
- Hit a 2-month high the prior week
- Broken out of triangle pattern
- Price above 20/50 day SMAs
- Price above rising 200 day SMA (uptrend)
Strategy
- Buy pullback to 80
- Sell break back below broken trendline
That’s a wrap for this week. Please message or email us any questions.
Cheers,
Jasper
Disclaimer:
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