Week Ahead: Week 16, 2026
Technical Analysis: Nasdaq 100 (NAS/USD)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets covering the latest news and price action with clear, actionable insights.
In one of the most remarkable reversals in market history, the S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high this week, erasing all war-related losses in just 11 trading sessions. That’s the fastest recovery from a 5-10% drawdown since 1928. The Nasdaq closed higher for 13 consecutive sessions, a streak not seen since 1992.
Markets have, for now, decided to look past the war. Not everyone is convinced that's wise.
Brent remains around $98 with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, the ceasefire deadline falls on Wednesday, and the Fed enters its pre-meeting blackout as earnings season intensifies.
Chart of the Week
The S&P 500 has now gained more than 3% for three weeks running — a feat last achieved in June 2020, with echoes of September 1982 and September 1940. To find longer streaks you have to go back to the 1930s.
Source: ZeroHedge
Week in Review
Geopolitics Talks failed to produce a deal over the weekend but the ceasefire held, keeping the risk-off reaction relatively contained. Gold dipped briefly below $4,700 and equities slipped at the open before recovering mid-week after Trump confirmed negotiations would resume.
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and fewer than a handful of crude shipments traversed the waterway. The IEA warned it could take up to two years to return to pre-war production levels.
Markets The S&P 500 closed at a record high, recovering all war-related losses. The Nasdaq was the top-performing major index, buoyed by TSMC earnings affirming continued AI-driven growth.
The dollar retreated as risk aversion eased and corporate earnings came in solid. Early bank results showed soaring trading revenues, with consumers described as resilient — though management commentary was cautious on the economic outlook.
ECB President Lagarde said it would be a mistake to look through the energy shock and signalled readiness to act. Futures markets continue to price at least one hike this year.
US PPI came in well below expectations at 0.5% versus 1.1% forecast, showing inflationary pressure from energy was lower than anticipated and tariff pressures were fading. Markets are still pricing a 70% chance the Fed stays on hold for the rest of the year.
UK GDP February rolling three-month growth jumped to 0.5% from 0.1% — a strong beat that gives the economy more buffer to absorb war-related disruption. Markets now price one BOE rate hike in June.
Latest Price Action
Source: FinViz.com
Week Ahead
Market Themes to Watch
Ceasefire deadline — Wednesday The two-week ceasefire expires mid-week with talks still ongoing. There is a high risk of brinkmanship around the deadline.Any breakdown would likely hit equities hard and send crude higher from already elevated levels. A credible extension or progress toward a deal would add further fuel to the rally.
Flash PMIs (Thursday) April flash PMIs will be the first to capture business sentiment after the mid-April ceasefire optimism. March PMIs fell to their lowest in nearly a year on energy supply fears — the question is whether the subsequent equity rebound reflects genuine business confidence.
UK CPI (Wednesday) March headline CPI is expected to rise to 3.4% from 3.0%, capturing the war's energy impact. Core is seen falling to 2.8% from 3.2%, which would keep alive the case for the BOE to hold. Tuesday's unemployment data — expected to tick up to 5.3% from 5.2% — adds to the dovish argument. Markets currently price one hike in June; a soft core print could push that back.
Japan CPI (Friday) March headline inflation is seen at just 1.5% from 1.3%, with core at 1.8% from 1.6% — both still below the BOJ's 2% target despite surging global energy prices.
Earnings season in full swing Tesla reports Wednesday — the first Magnificent Seven name to post Q1 results — alongside Boeing, Intel and Procter & Gamble. Company guidance, not just Q1 beats, will be the market's real test given the uncertainty still hanging over the second half of the year.
Economic Calendar
*** Highest Impact
Source: Investing.com
Earnings
Tesla / Boeing / Intel / Procter & Gamble / American Express / GE Aerospace / UnitedHealth / RTX / Philip Morris / Texas Instruments / NexEra Energy / Associated British Foods / Reckitt Benckiser / Sainsbury's
Technical Analysis
Nasdaq 100 (NAS/USD)
Setup
Bullish: Breakout
- Hit record high
- Broke above strong resistance at 26200
- Bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on monthly chart (incomplete)
- V-shape bullish reversal after false break below 24K
- Price well above 20/50/200 day SMAs
Strategy
- Buy retest of 26200
- Sell on sharp reversal under 26K
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
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