Week 19 (11 May, 2026)
Technical Analysis: US dollar / Swiss franc (USD/CHF)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets covering the latest news and price action with clear, actionable insights.
Crude was once again the week's defining instrument. Brent opened at $107, briefly dipped below $100 on ceasefire optimism after Trump announced a plan to move ships out of the Persian Gulf before snapping back above $100 when no deal emerged and the US launched retaliatory strikes into Iran late Thursday.
The yen briefly touched 160 again before falling to 157 on intervention speculation; the same pattern that cost Japanese authorities $34.5 billion just two weeks ago.
The week ahead brings US CPI, PPI and retail sales, the most important domestic data in weeks, alongside a Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing.
Chart of the Week
US inflation is ticking back higher as a result of the war with Iran and high energy prices. So far, markets are dismissing the chances of imminent US rate hikes with equities rising and US dollar falling.
Source: Bloomberg
Week in Review
Geopolitics The US-Iran truce remains fragile after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest counteroffer to end the war, saying 'I don't like it', even though he insists the ceasefire “remains in place” at the same time.
RBA Delivered the expected rate hike but struck a more hawkish tone than anticipated, raising its inflation outlook and warning further hikes were possible. Futures now price two summer hikes after a pause at the next meeting. Australia's trade balance swung into deficit for the first time in nine years as fuel import costs surged.
UK politics PM Keir Starmer came under renewed pressure to resign following local election results that saw Reform emerge as the biggest winner leaving a potential market risk if it triggers a leadership contest.
Markets US indices hit fresh record highs mid-week, led by AMD earnings driving the Nasdaq to another all-time close. The Nikkei surged 5.5% on Thursday — its best single-day performance on record — playing catch-up after three days of holiday closure.
The NZD was the best-performing major on hawkish RBNZ commentary and a lower-than-expected unemployment rate. CAD underperformed as crude dipped and the BOC governor signalled it was looking through first-round energy price effects.
Latest Price Action
Source: FinViz.com
Week Ahead
US CPI — core is what counts (Tuesday) April headline CPI is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.3%, driven by energy. The more watched core rate is seen holding at 2.6% — if it stays there, it gives the Fed room to look through the oil shock. A significantly higher core print could accelerate repricing toward a hike.
US PPI and retail sales (Wednesday/Thursday) Core PPI is expected to tick up to 3.9% from 3.8%, adding to the inflation picture. April retail sales are seen slowing sharply to 0.1% from 1.7% in March — the first sign that $4.50 gasoline may be crowding out other consumer spending.
Trump-Xi meeting (late week) Trump travels to Beijing with a small delegation — widely interpreted as a signal that major breakthroughs are unlikely. Markets will watch for any developments on rare earths, technology access and the war in Iran, where China's role as a mediator remains significant.
UK GDP (Thursday) Preliminary Q1 GDP is expected to accelerate to 1.4% annual growth from 1.0% in Q4, based on a strong March monthly reading of 0.3%. However, any sign of a UK leadership contest following Starmer's local election losses could overshadow the data.
China data — commodity currency read (weekend/week) April PPI is expected to jump to 1.7% from 0.5%, which could weigh on the AUD after last week's trade deficit.
Economic Calendar
*** Highest Impact
Source: FXStreet
Earnings
Cisco / Applied Materials / Alibaba / JD.com / Barrick / Imperial Brands / Burberry
Technical Analysis
US dollar / Swiss franc (USD/CHF)
Setup
Neutral: Sideways range
- Long term (monthly) downtrend
- Inside a 0.76-0.80 trading range
- Broken below rising trendline
- MACD back below zero line (bearish)
- Below 200 day SMA
- Price chopping above & below 20/50 day SMAs
Strategy
- Sell while below broken trendline
- Buy on move back over trendline after false breakdown
That’s it for this week. Good luck trading
Cheers,
Jasper
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