Week Ahead: Week 17, 2026
Technical Analysis: Euro/US dollar (EUR/USD)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets covering the latest news and price action with clear, actionable insights.
Crude and gold dominated the week's price action. Brent swung from $95 to back above $105 as ceasefire hopes faded and the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut, while gold shed 3.3% — its worst week in months. Eurozone composite PMI unexpectedly fell into contraction, driving a sharp divergence between US and European economic data that pushed EUR/USD back to 1.1700.
The week ahead is one of the busiest of the year: the Fed, ECB, BOE and BOJ all meet, five Magnificent Seven companies report, and Q1 GDP and PCE inflation data land — all while the latest ceasefire extension risks expiring mid-weekend.
Chart of the Week
The so-called hyper-scalers are currently investing more than ever in capital expenditure (capex) for AI. The big question Q1 earnings this week could answer is whether the investment has started to pay off.
Source: Bloomberg
Week in Review
Geopolitics A weekend breakdown in talks sent Brent up 6% on Monday. Mid-week optimism returned when Trump extended the ceasefire, but the Strait stayed shut and crude drifted back above $105. Trump declined to specify the extension's length — staffers suggested up to five days, pointing to a potential weekend expiry.
Markets US indices hit record highs Wednesday before giving back gains as war optimism faded. The dollar strengthened as data diverged sharply from the Eurozone. Gold fell 3.3%, dipping below $4,700, as US yields rose. The Nikkei broke above 60,000 to a record despite yen weakness.
UK data CPI rose to 3.3% as expected; unemployment surprised at 4.9% versus 5.2% forecast. A mixed picture that left June BOE hike expectations broadly intact.
Flash PMIs The Eurozone composite unexpectedly fell into contraction while US and UK readings moved back into expansion — a sharp divergence underscoring the war's uneven global impact.
Kevin Warsh Trump's Fed chair nominee stated he had made no promises to cut rates, pushing gold lower alongside the ceasefire extension and stronger retail sales.
Japan CPI Slightly hotter than expected, though the core-core rate fell to 2.4% — its lowest since end-2024. A gradual BOJ hiking trajectory remains the base case.
Latest Price Action
Source: FinViz.com
Week Ahead
Fed meeting — Powell's likely last (Wednesday) No change expected, but markets will focus on whether the Fed is hardening its stance now that it has war-era data. March core PCE follows Thursday, seen at 3.1% from 3.0%. With cuts priced out for 2026, any lean toward a hike would matter. The Nasdaq's path to 28,000 hinges on the tone.
Magnificent Seven earnings (Wednesday–Thursday) Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta report Wednesday; Apple follows Thursday. Investors will focus on AI capex commitments and whether guidance justifies valuations after a 19% Nasdaq surge since March 30. Over a third of the S&P 500 reports this week, with Q1 earnings tracking 16% growth so far.
ECB — urgency is the question (Thursday) Expected to hold, but flash April Eurozone CPI lands just hours before — seen at 2.9% from 2.6%, core at 2.4%. With the Eurozone in contraction, Lagarde faces a stagflation bind. EUR/USD is at 1.1700; support at 1.1600.
BOE vote split (Thursday) Hold expected; the vote count is all that matters. A hawkish split cements a June hike; a balanced vote pushes it back. GBP/USD has 1.3400 and 1.3600 in play.
BOJ — June hike signal? (Tuesday) A June hike is priced at 60%, making this the meeting most likely to surprise. USD/JPY is testing the critical 160 level.
Q1 GDP (Wednesday) The first official US growth read since the war. Combined with Thursday's PCE, it will test whether macro resilience is matching the optimism in markets.
Economic Calendar
*** Highest Impact
Source: FXStreet
Earnings
Microsoft / Alphabet / Amazon / Meta / Apple / Eli Lilly / Exxon Mobil / Chevron / Visa / Coca-Cola / Merck / ConocoPhillips / AstraZeneca / Verizon / Berkshire Hathaway / NatWest / Novartis / Corning
Technical Analysis
Euro/US dollar (EUR/USD)
Setup
Neutral: Sideways range
- Pullback from 1.185 Resistance zone
- Still inside 1.14-1.20 trading range
- Price chopping above & below 20/50/200 day SMAs
Strategy
- Buy breakout above 1.185
- Sell breakdown below 200 SMA
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
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