Technical Analysis: Week 15, 2026 (EUR/JPY)
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Last week's brief ceasefire euphoria has evaporated. Weekend peace talks between the US and Iran collapsed, and the US has now announced a blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — sending oil surging over 7% at the Monday open and erasing most of last week's gains across equities and bonds.
The fragile two-week ceasefire agreed mid-week, which had briefly sent Brent and the US dollar lower, is now hanging by a thread with no end to the conflict in sight.
The week ahead is dominated by the unofficial start of Q1 earnings season, with major US banks reporting from Tuesday.
Chart of the Week
According to COT data, speculators have now flipped to being ‘net short’ the Japanese yen, after being bullish since mid-2024.
Source: Reuters
Week in Review
Geopolitics. Monday opened quietly with Europe closed for the holiday, before markets reacted to Trump intensifying pressure on Iran amid early-week negotiations. A ceasefire was announced Wednesday, triggering a sharp unwind of war-premium assets — Brent fell as low as $92, gold jumped above $4,800, and global equities rallied hard, led by the DAX and Kospi.
The euphoria faded as confusion over the Strait's status persisted — Iran announced a "controlled" reopening before walking it back, with only dry bulk carriers transiting. By the weekend, peace talks had collapsed entirely and the US announced a blockade of Iranian shipping, sending oil sharply higher in Monday's Asia session.
Markets. The ceasefire mid-week briefly pushed the S&P 500 to within 1% of its pre-war level before gains moderated. Asian markets fell around 1% on Monday's open as talks collapsed, with S&P 500 futures down 0.7% and European futures off 1.3%. Japan's 10-year yield hit a 29-year high of 2.49%.
FOMC minutes. Minutes showed growing openness to raising rates, with officials lifting their inflation outlook on account of the war-related oil shock. Yields edged higher, though concurrent ceasefire optimism kept the dollar soft and the euro bid. Markets still price two ECB hikes and one BOE hike this year.
RBNZ. Held rates as expected but struck a more hawkish tone than anticipated, warning it would act decisively if inflation heats up. NZD recovered all of its recent losses on the back of the surprise.
Latest Price Action
Source: FinViz.com
Week Ahead
💭 Market Themes to Watch
War fallout — the only number that matters The US blockade of Iranian shipping is the immediate risk as the week opens. Markets are not yet pricing a full re-escalation — the mood leans toward hoping for a resolution — but the tail risk of renewed US strikes on Iranian infrastructure is back on the table. Watch the Strait of Hormuz: any credible sign of resumed crude flows would be a sharp positive for equities and a negative for oil; further escalation runs the reverse.
Q1 earnings season — guidance is everything Goldman Sachs kicks things off Monday, with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup following Tuesday and a flood of results thereafter including J&J, Netflix and PepsiCo. S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise around 14% year-on-year — what would be the sixth straight quarter of double-digit growth. The bar is high, but the real focus will be forward guidance: how companies are absorbing oil-driven cost increases.
China trade data — war's toll on the world's largest crude importer China's March trade surplus is expected to be roughly halved from February's record $214 billion to around $105 billion, as surging energy import costs bite. Q1 GDP is seen at 0.8% growth, down from 1.2% in Q4.
US PPI — energy pass-through in focus March producer prices are projected to jump to 1.3% from 0.7% in February, reflecting elevated gasoline and diesel costs as Asian refiners bid aggressively for US crude. Core PPI is seen easing slightly to 0.4% from 0.5%. The data will shape expectations for Fed policy.
UK GDP — a weak baseline before the war hit February monthly GDP is expected at just 0.1% growth, barely above January's flat reading. It sets a fragile pre-war baseline that March's disruption could easily push into contraction.
Economic Calendar
Source: Investing.com
Earnings
Goldman Sachs / JPMorgan / Wells Fargo / Citigroup / Johnson & Johnson / Netflix / PepsiCo / ASML / Bank of America / Morgan Stanley / State Street / Fastenal
Technical Analysis
Euro-Yen (EUR/JPY)
Setup
Bullish: Strong uptrend
- Strong monthly resistance at 187 being tested.
- Long term monthly uptrend could be resuming
- Triangle pattern breakout on daily chart
- Price well above 20/50/200 day SMAs
Strategy
- Buy breakout with close above 187
- Sell bearish reversal candlestick pattern near 187
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
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