Week Ahead: Week 14, 2026
Technical Analysis: Brent crude oil (UKO/USD)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets covering the latest news and price action with clear, actionable insights.
Brent crude oil just recorded its fastest-ever monthly rise, while gold scored its worst month in over a decade.
Stock markets snapped a five-week losing streak with the S&P 500 posting a modest gain in the holiday-shortened week, though the quarter that just closed was its worst since 2022. Asian stocks bore the brunt, with the Nikkei posting its largest monthly drop since 2008 and the Kospi entering a bear market.
The war in the Middle East is now entering its sixth week, approaching the end of Trump's stated four-to-six-week timeline — and markets are watching closely for any sign of resolution.
The week ahead brings US CPI, Fed minutes and the RBNZ decision, with the economic data likely to matter more than usual given inflation's increasingly central role in shaping the war's political calculus.
Chart of the Week
The big data point this week is US CPI, where economists expect the ‘headline’ figure to be heavily affected by the rise in crude oil prices since the start of the war with Iran.
Source: Bloomberg
Week in Review
Geopolitics Monday opened with Houthi attacks on Israel and Trump simultaneously suggesting Iran had conceded most of his demands while threatening to seize its oil. Mid-week optimism surged on reports of back-channel peace discussions and anticipation of a major Trump speech, which markets bet would signal the war was nearing its end. Trump struck a defiant tone instead, erasing the rally.
Markets The S&P 500 closed its worst quarter since 2022 before snapping its losing streak with a weekly gain. US crude topped $110 on Thursday — its first sustained move above $100 since 2022 — keeping inflation expectations and bond markets on edge.
Eurozone CPI March flash inflation came in at 2.5% versus 2.7% expected, up from 1.9% in February — softer than feared despite higher energy costs. Markets pared back ECB hiking bets sharply, moving from pricing over two hikes to just one by year-end.
UK GDP Final Q1 growth was confirmed at just 0.1%, reinforcing the case for a more cautious BOE. Rate hike expectations fell to around 45bps by year-end from 60bps the prior week.
China PMIs Official manufacturing surprised to the upside, rising above 50 into expansion territory. Output and new orders held up, though analysts flagged a sharp rise in pricing pressure as a potential inflation spillover risk.
Latest Price Action
Source: FinViz.com
Week Ahead
Market Themes to Watch
US CPI — the war's first inflation verdict The March CPI report is the week's main event and the first official reading to capture the war's energy shock. US crude has surged roughly 90% year-to-date and average gasoline prices crossed $4 a gallon for the first time in over three years. Headline CPI is expected to rise to 3.1% from 2.4%, with core — which excludes energy — seen edging up to 2.6% from 2.5%.
A hotter-than-expected print would deepen the Fed's bind and could weigh on equities; some analysts also note that high inflation may erode Trump's political appetite for continuing the war, making this data point unusually consequential.
Fed minutes — how worried is the FOMC? The minutes from the March meeting will be scrutinised for signals on whether policymakers are inclined to look through the initial energy-driven price surge or lean toward a pre-emptive hike to avoid repeating the 2022 "transitory" mistake. Rate cuts have already been largely priced out for 2026; hawkish minutes could accelerate repricing toward a hike.
RBNZ — hold expected, outlook matters The RBNZ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged after Governor Breman signalled the bank would not react to first-round oil price effects.
Core PCE — pre-war baseline The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is also due but covers February data — largely before the conflict took hold.
Economic Calendar
Source: Investing.com
Earnings
Delta Air Lines / Constellation Brands / Unite Group
Technical Analysis
Brent crude oil (UKO/USD)
Setup
Bullish: Strong uptrend
- Strong monthly price gain found resistance at $120.
- Next long term resistance at $138
- Daily chart shows a double top at 120
- Price has found support at a 50% retracement of the rally
- Major support below is at $88 (the 61.8% Fib)
- Price well above 20/50/200 day SMAs
Strategy
- Buy close above last week’s high
- Wait for deeper correction to support at $88
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
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