Technical Analysis: Week 13, 2026
(SPX/USD)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights.
It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top trade idea for the week, complete with chart and key levels.
Week Ahead
Week Ahead — March 30, 2026
Markets endured a bruising fifth consecutive weekly decline for the S&P 500 as the Nasdaq and Dow both confirmed corrections (falling more than 10% from their respective all-time highs) while gold entered a bear market.
The week opens with the situation still unresolved. Trump extended his deadline for threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to Wednesday. Most markets are closed Friday for Good Friday.
Week in Review
News & Macro
Geopolitics The week opened with crude above $100 on fears of an imminent US strike. Sentiment reversed midweek after Trump announced a five-day reprieve and a ceasefire plan was floated — Iran allowed more vessels to transit the Strait, pulling Brent briefly below $100.
Optimism faded fast as Iran denied any talks and the US announced plans to deploy an additional 10,000 troops to the region. Trump extended his deadline a second time, to Wednesday, and reiterated a four-to-six-week timeline for the war.
UK inflation Core CPI came in slightly hotter than expected, putting pressure on the Bank of England to tighten. Sterling gave back gains through the second half of the week.
Flash PMIs March surveys showed a meaningful global activity slowdown — the first to capture conditions since the conflict escalated. Europe held in expansion but analysts flagged rising price pressures.
Equities The S&P 500 fell for a fifth straight week, now more than 7% off its January high. The Nasdaq and Dow confirmed corrections. Tech and memory stocks led losses late in the week amid rising yields and growing anxiety over private credit markets and weak Treasury auction demand.
Price Action
- Dow Jones + Nasdaq: Entered technical correction, down over 10% from record high
- Brent Crude: $110 open to a $94 low, closing near $96–100
- Gold: Entered bear market territory, down over 20% from record high
- USD: Trended higher into week's end
- AUD: Worst-performing major FX after below-consensus Australian CPI delayed expected RBA hike to May
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: Rose above 4.4%, highest since before the war
This Week
Market Themes to Watch
Iran deadline — Wednesday Trump's extended deadline expires mid-week. Iran denies negotiations and insists the Strait is closed, even as vessels transit through territorial waters. Reports of a potential Kharg Island seizure and a rumoured Gulf-led naval force add further near-term risk.
A strike on Iranian infrastructure would likely send crude sharply higher and trigger broad risk-off moves. Any credible signal of diplomacy could produce an equally sharp relief rally.
Eurozone flash CPI — Tuesday The first official inflation data since the war began. German CPI on Monday is expected to jump to 2.6% from 1.9%, setting the tone. The Eurozone headline is forecast at 2.2% from 1.9%, with core easing slightly to 2.3% from 2.4%.
China PMIs — Monday/Tuesday Official and private manufacturing PMIs land at the start of the week. China, the largest importer of Gulf crude, has the most direct exposure. The official PMI is expected to remain in contraction but improve to 49.8 from 49.0; the private RatingDog measure is seen at 51.3 from 52.1.
US nonfarm payrolls — Friday (markets closed) March payrolls are due on Good Friday. Consensus expects a return to positive territory at around 48,000–55,000 jobs after February's –92,000 shock, though still well below replacement level. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 4.4–4.5%.
With the Fed already pricing no further cuts this year and fed funds futures now pricing a modest chance of a 2026 hike, a weak number makes the next policy decision a lot harder for the US central bank.
Economic Calendar
- Monday: German CPI; China official and private PMIs; UK mortgage approvals
- Tuesday: Eurozone flash CPI; RBA meeting minutes
- Wednesday: Japan Tankan large manufacturers index
- Thursday: US trade balance
- Friday (markets closed): US nonfarm payrolls; China RatingDog services PMI
Earnings
Nike / McCormick / TD Synnex / ConAgra
Technical Analysis (Chart of the week)
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with one of our favourite setups and strategies.
S&P 500 (SPX/USD)
Setup
Bearish: downtrend
- Monthly chart shows sharp downturn from 7k level
- Long term trend is still up, now undergoing a retracement
- Major support at 6150 (old high) then 5,800 (50% Fib)
- Daily is in a downtrend, below 200 SMA
- Price well below 20/50 SMAs
Strategy
- Sell retest of broken support at 6500
- Look for bullish price action reversal near former peak at 6150 to buy
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
