Technical Analysis: Week 12, 2026
(EUR/USD | Gold | Bitcoin)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights.
It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead — March 23, 2026
Markets spent last week in the grip of central bank decisions and Middle East developments, with Brent crude swinging from just over $100 to nearly $120 before settling under $110. The hawkish tone from the other central banks besides the Fed (ECB, BOE and BOJ) saw the dollar slide. Gold tumbled back under $4,500.
The week opens with the situation materially more dangerous than where it ended Friday. Over the weekend, Trump threatened to bomb Iranian power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz was fully open within 48 hours. Iran's military responded Sunday that a strike on its power infrastructure would result in the Strait being closed indefinitely. Iran's Parliament Speaker added that Middle East critical infrastructure could be "irreversibly destroyed" if Iranian power plants are hit. The 48-hour clock runs out early in the trading week.
The economic calendar is light, with UK CPI, flash PMIs and Japan inflation the scheduled highlights — but all are likely to be entirely overshadowed by what happens in the Strait.
Week in Review
News & Macro
Geopolitics Dominates Early in the week, a high-level US-China meeting offered positive signals but no firm agreements. The Strait of Hormuz remained in focus as a handful of ships managed to transit while Iran offered alternative routes for non-US/Israeli-aligned shipping. The US struck Kharg Island — the departure point for 90% of Iran's crude exports — while Iran retaliated by hitting a key UAE port that had been serving as a bypass route. Trump delayed his planned meeting with President Xi by a month, signalling the conflict could persist for weeks.
Mid-Week Escalation Markets fell sharply after Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field and Iran struck Qatar's LNG facilities and Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port, which had been handling up to 2.5 million barrels per day of diverted Gulf crude. Brent spiked to nearly $120. Qatar confirmed the attacks reduced its LNG capacity by 17%, with recovery expected to take several years.
Late-Week De-escalation Signals Crude pulled back as the US and Israel signalled restraint, with Israel pledging not to strike Iranian energy infrastructure. Netanyahu suggested the war would end "sooner than people think," and reports indicated Iran was allowing a growing number of non-US-aligned vessels to transit the Strait through its territorial waters.
Central Banks — Hawkish Holds Across the Board The Fed held as expected, but the updated dot plot showed a significant reduction in votes for easing — widely read as a hawkish surprise. Powell expressed frustration with persistent inflation while staff projections lifted the GDP growth outlook. The ECB also held, emphasising oil-driven inflation risks and releasing wider-range forecasts to account for a prolonged conflict. ECB's Nagel explicitly flagged a potential April hike if conditions warrant; markets are now pricing two hikes by year-end. The BOE voted unanimously to hold — a strong hawkish signal — with markets similarly pricing two hikes. The BOJ delivered a hawkish hold with one dissenter voting to hike, helping USD/JPY retreat from the key 160 level.
Equities The S&P 500 posted its fourth straight weekly decline, hitting a six-month low and closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. The Nasdaq ended nearly 10% below its October all-time high. The Stoxx 50 headed for a third consecutive weekly loss and is now negative year-to-date. Super Micro Computer tumbled after-hours Thursday after the US charged its co-founder with helping smuggle banned servers into China.
Price Action
- Brent Crude: Opened just above $100, spiked to nearly $120, settled under $110; WTI-Brent spread widened to nearly $20 at one point
- Gold: Fell below $4,550, recovered above $4,700 by week's end
- US Dollar Index: First weekly decline as global central banks shifted hawkish
- USD/JPY: Retreated from the 160 resistance level following BOJ's hawkish hold
- NZD: Best-performing major currency on dollar weakness and RBNZ hike expectations
- S&P 500: Fourth straight weekly loss; 6.8% off January record high; below 200-day MA
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: Rose to 4.38%, highest since last summer
Week Ahead
Market Themes to Watch
The 48-Hour Ultimatum — Immediate Tail Risk Trump's weekend threat to bomb Iranian power plants — and Iran's response that doing so would close the Strait indefinitely — is the most acute near-term risk markets face as the week opens. Tehran has also warned that regional energy infrastructure and power plants in countries hosting US bases would become legitimate targets. If the ultimatum passes without resolution, the range of plausible outcomes widens dramatically. A strike on Iranian power plants would likely send crude sharply higher and trigger a broad risk-off move across equities, credit and EM assets. Any signal of back-channel negotiation or a climbdown could produce an equally sharp relief rally.
Strait of Hormuz — Still the Only Number That Matters Even setting aside the weekend ultimatum, all other data points remain subordinate to developments in Iran. Watch for any signals on whether non-aligned shipping access through the Strait is expanding, and whether the US-Israeli de-escalation signals from late last week hold. A major energy conference in Houston featuring top global industry executives could draw additional attention to supply dynamics.
Flash PMIs — First War Readthrough (Tuesday) March flash PMI data will be the first surveys to partially capture business conditions after the conflict escalated. Japan is expected to remain in expansion at 51.3 despite fuel disruption. Germany's manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.7, also in expansion. The Eurozone composite is seen ticking up marginally to 52.0 from 51.9. The UK manufacturing PMI is projected to slip to 51.1 from 51.7. Any meaningful misses — particularly in manufacturing — could sharpen expectations for how badly higher energy costs are feeding through to the real economy.
Japan CPI (Tuesday) February headline inflation is expected to decline to 1.3% from 1.5%, reflecting lower food prices. Core is seen edging up to 2.1% from 2.0%. The BOJ has signalled inflation will rebound toward its 2% target later this year, and the hawkish hold last week means markets will be watching yen direction closely.
UK CPI (Wednesday) Headline CPI is expected to dip to 2.8% from 3.0%, with core at 2.9% from 3.1% — both aided ironically by lower energy prices in the reference period. The reading could serve as a pre-war baseline; a larger-than-expected drop might give the BOE some breathing room before hiking. UK retail sales on Friday are expected to slow sharply to 0.1% from 1.8% in January, pointing to consumer stress even before the war's effects fully register.
Economic Calendar
- Monday: Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence
- Tuesday: Flash PMIs (Japan, Germany, Eurozone, UK); Japan February CPI; US ADP Employment Change
- Wednesday: UK February CPI; Australia Monthly Inflation
- Thursday: German GfK Consumer Confidence
- Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment; UK Retail Sales
Earnings
A very quiet week on the corporate front:
- Carnival
- GameStop
- Next
- Fevertree / Kingfisher / Crest Nicholson
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.
Sterling (EUR/USD)
Setup
Neutral: Possible top
- Monthly still in a 1.14-1.19 trading range
- Price has dropped below the 200 day SMA (downtrend)
- Resistance from S&R and Fib levels
- Price below 20/50 SMAs
Strategy
- Sell 38.2% Fib retracement
- Sell 50% Fib retracement
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Setup
Bearish
- Monthly chart took out prior low at 75k
- Daily chart shows possible flag after steep drop
- Price under 200 SMA
- 20/50 SMAs show consolidation
- 75k first possible resistance then 81-84k
Strategy
- Sell retest of 75000 (last week’s signal working so far)
- Sell break of bear flag pattern
Gold (XAU/USD)
Setup
Bearish - double top
- Taken out long term uptrend-line
- Price still above rising 200 SMA - uptrend
- Below 20/50 SMAs - correction
- Next support at February low (4400)
Strategy
- Sell retest of broken trendline ~4800
- Alternative: Buy successful test of Feb low (4400)
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
